The skipjack price at Bangkok port has further grown despite setbacks in Thai canned tuna production capacity due to Covid 19 pandemic. Packers are working at a lower than usual capacity while carriers might be bringing less catch to port due to the ongoing FAD ban in the Wester Central Pacific Ocean. Current market price of Skipjack is above $1,500/mt and packers are not receiving offers due to low supply. The demand for yellowfin remains quiet high with deals being made at around $2,550 per /mt, which is a 15% increase from last month.
Current Tuna Market Raw Material Price:
SKJ = US$1,500-$1,550/ton
YFN = US$2,550/ton (no supply)
Albacore = US$3,200/ton (limited supply)
Tongol = US$2,100/ton (limited supply)
The global avocado oil market is expected to increase 7% by 2026 to reach a value of approximately 734 million USD. North America is a leading region for the global avocado oil market followed by Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Avocado oil is a natural oil derived from the pulp of the avocado. Approximately 70% of the oil is composed of heart-healthy oleic acid, a monounsaturated Omega-9 fatty acid. The increasing consumer awareness of the nutritional benefits of avocado oil is one of the main factors propelling the industry growth. The other major drivers of the market including rising disposable incomes, increasing population, increasing health consciousness, and busier lifestyles are expected to drive the industry growth. The major distribution channels for the products are business to business and business to consumer.
Currently, mangoes are ranked No.12/13 of most-consumed fruits in the market, both processed and fresh. The global mango market is anticipated to rise 2-3% this year and maintain velocity during the forecasted period, between 2021 and 2026.The upcoming South American mango season is largely produced in Peru where over 59,000 acres of mango orchards sit along its coast, and exports more than 70,000 tons of mangos each year across the world. The United States is the main destination of mango exports from Peru with shipments amounting to about 43% of all shipments, followed by the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, UK, Canada and France. Mango exports reached an FOB value of $70.8 million in January 2020 because of the increase in consumption among American consumers by 68% from 2005 to 2018. It must also be noted that Covid-19 is causing shifts in the market, since face-to-face purchasing is changing due to online shopping becoming more popular. With the global crisis, Peruvian mango producers are projecting a 5-10% decrease in harvest production which may affect the consumer price. Overall, the mango industry has suffered a certain impact, but still maintained relatively optimistic growth.
For winter crop it is expected that price will be around 7 baht per kg and above. With the good quality fruit having a lot higher cost due to higher demand from packers to avoid high nitrate. Packaging as expected will also be affecting price due to increase in tin. Also, to keep in mind, the production cost for plantations is increasing, that may result in higher fruit price for the coming winter season, the high iron ore and oil prices would also have ripple impact on production costs for canneries. The inflation would soon hit Thailand and that may result in the increase of minimum wage.
We will have a very low output crop this season. One third of the fields across China regions that grow mandarins were replaced by other crops and monthlong freezing temperatures has damaged the new crops. Expected raw material will be reduced by 50%-75% this season and suppliers estimate the price level for crop will be up by at least 40%. China Canned Foods Association Canned Mandarin branch will hold a meeting by early October, suppliers will not make offers until then.
Spain season will start by November, new crop information will be available around Mid-October.
The new season for pear has started and run through November. The current harvest is about the same as previous year, but prices are up by 8% due to labor and tin plate cost increases.
The rampant spread of COVID Delta is causing havoc with the supply chain. Lockdowns and border closures have disrupted the harvesting and transportation of raw materials. Lockdowns and social distancing procedures have disrupted and reduced production output at the factories. And the shipping crisis continues to negatively impact the timely delivery of goods. All of this is causing an absence of inventory in major markets such as North America and Europe. Demand is very high with very little supply is coming to refill.
Philippines – The Philippines is falling further behind in their deliveries due to lockdowns. They are about 6 to 7 weeks behind. They are well sold into November and have meager supply available for December. The current supply is normal, and prices are expected to remain stable for the next few months. October is the start of typhoon season.
Indonesia – Indonesia is now well sold through September and quickly selling October onwards. Demand is high due to buyers diverting orders from Philippines to Indonesia to get available supply and ensure timely deliveries.
Vietnam – Supply is almost non-existent due to the rampant spread of Covid Delta and subsequent country-wide lockdowns to prevent further spread. Harvesting and factory production are very low.
Sri Lanka – Sri Lanka prices are starting to rise again after recent declines. This is mainly due to the recent Ramadan buying from the Middle East and North Africa.
Thailand – Supply and prices are expected to remain steady through the end of the year with no significant changes from the previous year.
Current at $1.1746
Predictions for the last quarter of 2021 are showing the euro dropping lower each month until it may reach 1.15 by the end of the year. It’s currently around 1.17. Reasons for this have been stated that September was the third successive month in which growth has slowed in the Eurozone sector since June’s survey’s record expansion, and to the greatest extent since February. The rates of growth for both output and new orders eased to an eight-month low, primarily linked to supply chain constraints, as well as concerns over the ongoing pandemic. New export orders also grew less, and the pace of job creation moderated to a six-month low. Meanwhile, suppliers’ delivery times lengthened at an increased rate in September, continuing to extend to a degree greatly exceeding anything seen prior to the pandemic. On the price front, input price inflation in manufacturing remained close to all-time highs. Business confidence also went down amid concerns over the ongoing pandemic. Conversely the US has seen stronger economic growth.
OCEAN FREIGHT AND SUPPLY CHAIN
Typhoon Chenthu – which had the potential to be the latest cause of the string of logistics disruptions in China this year – shifted east before making landfall near Shanghai last week. With the potential crisis averted, and with the recent cap on spot rates from some carriers in place, ocean rates were stable overall this week, with Asia-US West Coast rates even declining slightly. But transpacific demand remains in high gear, and carriers continue to add capacity in response. To do so when basically all the globe’s container ships are already active, carriers are moving capacity from secondary lanes to the transpac, complicating things for shippers on those lower-profile routes. There are about 40% fewer ships servicing the Asia-Middle East Lane than originally scheduled, and transatlantic rates have increased 16% so far this month to a record high quadruple its level a year ago.
Overwhelmed trucking, warehouse and rail systems are also contributing to the port delays, and to the overall slog in end-to-end logistics. Data shows that so far this month China-US ocean shipments are taking an average of 73 days to arrive at their final destination, 83% longer than in September 2019. Durations like those mean that, with the holidays rapidly approaching, goods that don’t ship soon may not make it in time. This pressure is adding to the trend of ocean to air conversions which, together with COVID restrictions and air cargo capacity constrained by the lack of passenger jet activity, are pushing air cargo rates in and out of Asia ever closer to the highs only seen during last year’s rush on PPE.
Data shows that rates from Shanghai to the US increased 2% this week, but are 276% higher than before the pandemic, and have increased 19% in the past month.