Market Trends - April 2024
- GMcCabe
- Apr 22, 2024
- 6 min read
TUNA
Fish price is traded at $1350/MT in which packers believe that this level could be the bottom price for this year. The price will turn its way up again during the tuna conference in May.
Yellowfin price is $2,400/mt while there is no movement for Albacore.
Raw Material Price
SKJ = US $1,350/ton
YFN = US $2,400/ton
Albacore = US $2,600/ton
Tongol = US $2,000/ton
BABY CORN
THAILAND: Due to difficulties in packing whole baby corn, several factories have decided to put their offers on hold until further notice.
VIETNAM: There is a supply challenge for whole baby corn due to the impact of hot weather, consequently, the quantity of harvested Baby Corn is lower compared to previous years. Furthermore, the quality of Baby Corn does not meet the packers' standard size requirements, leading to delays as the factory takes additional time to select the right size for packing in cans.
COCONUT
The new pack season is starting but due to the severe El Nino weather conditions in the major growing regions, crops are proving to have about 25% lower yields than last season. Pricing on raw materials has continued to rise along with demand. Increased demand from various industries such as food & beverage, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals is adding to the strain on supply and pressure to increase pricing. Pricing is expected to be about 20% higher when compared to 2023. Buyers that haven’t placed orders yet, may be short supplied this year.
PINEAPPLE
The last year has been very dramatic for pineapple. Supplies have been even lower than the forecasts. Farmers do not expect much improvement in supply during the coming months due to the on-going drought and hot weather. Summer crop is forecasted to be the same as last year which was 40% lower than 2022. Pricing for the short summer crop is expected to remain at a high level. Factories are already booked and finding it difficult to cover existing orders for slices and choice grade products.
ARTICHOKE
Following a challenging year of unusually high temperatures due to the El Nino phenomena and crops being 30% less than projected, the new season looks very promising. The weather is back to usual for this time of the year and plants are developing as anticipated. The positive feedback from the fields along with the steady and consistent market demand kept the prices of raw materials at the same levels as last year. Packers are confident that this season will meet the expectations and there will be no disruption to the supply chain.
OLIVE OIL
The rain in Spain during Holy Week is being considered a miracle by some. The years-long drought decimated output of the world’s largest olive-producing country and threatened drinking water supplies. The reservoir in Cordoba in Andalusia, for instance, was at a perilous 14% capacity on March 25. After a week of heavy rains, it has exceeded 70%.
The rain and replenishment of reservoirs is good news and portends a potential return to pre-drought levels of production in Spain. This is helping pump the brakes on rising global olive prices, which were being fueled in part by fears about the 2024/25 harvest. Not all areas of Spain received equal relief, but the rain in Andalusia (the region responsible for approximately half of Spanish olive production) bodes well for next year’s crop—barring other risk factors that could impact fruit development in the coming weeks.
Today’s high olive oil prices are still being driven by tight supplies and continued consumer demand. The latest release of data on the 2023/24 harvest from the Spanish Ministry of Fish and Agriculture (MAPA) confirmed that total production from Spain will be 845,000 metric tons, which is a 27% increase over the 2022/23 harvest—still far below the 2022/21 harvest, but much better than the most pessimistic predictions. This news somewhat lessened the pressure coming from tight supplies.
As far as demand goes, many countries have seen a significant decline in consumption with olive oil prices being on average 50% higher in January 2024 than they were a year before. The increase in Italy, for example, was reported at 45% with the expectation that Italian olive oil consumption this year will drop 13%.
Demand in the U.S., however, remains relatively stable. The U.S. market has been relatively resistant to pricing pressure and has moderated its demand of olive oil only slightly, which is attributed to the market's appreciation of the health and culinary benefits of high-quality extra virgin olive oil.
Another reason demand in the U.S. hasn’t softened much may be that consumers in the U.S. have been largely insulated from higher prices. Olive oil prices in the U.S. have on average only increased 18% over a year ago with most of that increase coming only in the last few months. This and the fact that U.S. is now the world’s second largest consuming nation after Spain continues to put positive pressure on global market pricing.
In general, the latest news presents a somewhat rosier market picture than previously. Next, the focus will be on the flowering season and monitoring whether U.S. demand reacts to rising prices.
OTHER NEWS
THE EURO
As of April 10, 2024, the USD and EUR exchange rate climbed to 1 US Dollar (USD) which is approximately equal to 0.93 Euros (EUR), this movement is influenced by recent CPI release and the incoming ECB meeting. Most bank analysts believe an optimistic scenario is for the Euro to get stronger in the next few weeks. However, it’s essential to note that exchange rates can be influenced by a variety of factors, including market dynamics, interest rates and economic conditions.
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