TUNA
The skipjack catch in the Western Pacific and the Maldives is better overall. While the rest of the Indian Ocean is experiencing poor catches. Skipjack price level is now $1500/MT which is close to the low point for 2023. Packers forecast skipjack price at $1,600/mt in Q1/2024 rising to $1,700/MT for the remainder of the year.
For yellowfin, we have seen significant decrease of volume caught. However, market demand for yellowfin is also low at the moment. The price remains at the $2,300/MT level and we foresee that it may rebound in Q1 due to low supply.
Albacore price is currently at the $2,500/MT level, which is the low point for albacore and probably will rebound in Q1/2024.
Raw Material Price
SKJ = US $1,500/ton
YFN = US $2,300/ton
Albacore = US $2,500/ton
Tongol = US $2,000/ton
COCONUT
Many growers are forecasting the next coconut season to be lower than last year and therefore prices are expected to rise. There are many factors contributing to the current and forecasted low supply of coconut raw material and the higher prices – low season, lower demand for coconut milk, exports of whole coconuts, and the effects of El Nino. Current supplies are being depleted as we move through the low season. The new pack season will start in April but because of the severe weather conditions brought by El Nino, crops are expected to have lower yields than previous years. Pricing on raw materials will increase as demand exceeds supply. Buyers are urged to plan forecasts now and place orders to secure supply.
PINEAPPLE
This winter crop is one of the worst crops due to a very late start. Factories had been producing 2-3 days per week since October until last week as supply gets back to normal, albeit a very limited supply of choice grade. Price remains the same as in November. This would be the worst year of pineapple in Thai history because total tonnage is less than 0.8 million tons, which is even less than in 2020. For the summer crop, we are not sure about the situation yet, but we anticipate that tonnage of fruit will be the same or a bit higher than 2023.
MANDARIN ORANGES
Mandarin pack season will end in January, overall price dropped about 10%-15% from last season. China still remains the most suitable origin for canned mandarin oranges to the US.
Below are price reference points for 24x11 oz mandarin: CHINA – $8.50-$9.00/cs.
SPAIN – $16.50/cs.
TURKEY – $13.50/cs.
OLIVE OIL
SPAIN – The monthly data of Olive Oil in Spain in November have been published as follows:
• Production in November: 220.929 metric tons.
• Total stocks as of Nov 30: 372.762 metric tons.
• Total sales (domestic and export): 65.367 metric tons.
In comparison, the total sales in October 2023 reached 79.700 metric tons. Even though monthly sales show some decrease, and it is the beginning of the harvest, the cost of the raw material continues to be extremely high and volatile. The purchases made by big bottlers on the market over the last two weeks when stocks are still low, and the persistent drought may be two reasons for the continuing price increases. However, the decrease in consumption is becoming perceptible.
All those factors have created a feeling of uncertainty in the market and suppliers remain very conservative. In our opinion, prices are not likely to stay at the present level for an extended period of time. There is not yet a reaction to the lower sales. We will continue to watch the market and will inform you if changes happen.
Morocco – Morocco’s agriculture ministry has approved a decree to ban olive oil exports to stem skyrocketing prices on the domestic market. The announcement makes Morocco the third major olive oil producing country to implement an export ban after officials in Turkey took similar measures in August, followed by Syria in September. Officials in both countries cited rising olive oil prices in their decision to implement the export prohibitions.
RED PEPPER
The rainy season in Perú is just now starting. Due to El Nino they are expecting higher than normal amounts of rain. Northern Perú will be affected by an increase of the temperature by 2-3 degrees, more than the average weather conditions for this time of the year.
Peruvian producers reported that the Red Pepper yield has decreased by 30% compared to last year and they expect to maintain these negative results during the first semester of 2024. Nevertheless, the months of December and January will be critical to forecast next year. This will impact on the cost of the product for next season which we will be quoting by January 2024. As for labor costs, there is not any news of an increase for 2024.
OTHER NEWS
THE EURO
November U.S. inflation figures were in line with market forecasts. Core inflation monthly rate climbed from 0.1% to 0.3%, and the yearly core inflation matched expectations at a 4.0% rise. Despite Eurozone inflation nearing the 2.0% target, the European Central Bank is likely to maintain its interest rates at the upcoming meeting in December. Bank analysts believe the Euro's rising trend against the U.S. dollar may persist but the near-term outlook is mixed. They see several risks associated with it, which may cause the rate struggle to gain much.
