TUNA
The catch in Western Pacific remains good, SKJ raw material price is in a slight downward trend.
The current SKJ price is now at $1400/ton. Packers foresee that SKJ price may increase significantly again in April/May.
Regarding yellowfin, its supply has been low for a few consecutive weeks. There are very few suppliers offering yellowfin for now because we believe that they would like to wait until its price increases to the better level.
For Albacore, there are very few transactions in the market. Its price is at the level of 2,600 due to slow demand in the market but catching is good.
Raw Material Price
SKJ = US $1,400/ton
YFN = US $2,300/ton
Albacore = US $2,600/ton
Tongol = US $2,000/ton
COCONUT
Current supplies of raw material are low and almost sold out. The new pack season will start in April but because of the severe El Nino weather conditions, crops are proving to have about 25% lower yields than 2023. Pricing on raw materials is expected to be about 20% higher as demand exceeds supply. The lower demand of coconut milk is adding additional constraints to the supply of coconut water. Packers with specific raw material needs are finding it harder to obtain the supply. Buyers are urged to plan forecasts now and place orders to secure supply.
PINEAPPLE
The situation of pineapple supply does not look good. The forecast of total tonnage per day is lessthan 3,000 mt throughout the year, while it will need at least 5,000 mt to feed all factories.
There are few reasons caused by low tonnage. Firstly, the number of plants has reduced due to the drought. Secondly, pineapple did not flower as the temperature in November-December was not cool enough. Later, farmers must force flowering by using Calcium Carbide but there was not enough rain to do so. Thus, we can foresee the shortage problem.
In terms of price, the average fruit price in January was almost THB 11.00/kg while January last year the price was around THB 7.50-8.00/kg, the price has increased by about 40% from last year.
If pineapple is short, we can predict that the price will increase. Anyhow, it also depends on market demand. If the demand is not strong, then the price may not increase much but if the demand is strong then we may see competition among packers.
OLIVE OIL
According to a preliminary estimate from Spain’s Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias, the 2023/24 crop year has met the lowered expectations, albeit narrowly.
Despite the promising forecast of 755,000 tons, production will most likely reach only 710,000 tons due to unexpectedly low oil yields from olives that have already been milled.
Spanish olive oil yields are greatly affected by drought and lack of water and would require rain throughout the winter and spring for the trees to recover from the water stress situation, which they have suffered during the last two seasons, especially since approximately 70 percent of the country’s olive groves are not irrigated.
Regardless of how the 2023/24 harvest finishes, it will surpass the record-low yield of the previous crop year, when Spain produced 664,033 tons. The slight production rebound is primarily due to the effects of the Iberian peninsula’s historic drought being somewhat mitigated by rain.
However, large olive oil-producing regions, including Andalusia and Castilla-la-Mancha have fallen short by 30 and 23 percent, respectively. Although not all harvest data has been counted for these regions, the current estimates are discouraging. There will be a better picture in February once the remaining 15 percent of farmers have completed their harvest.
For now, the market has not changed substantially since the beginning of January. Activity is very small, both on the supply side and on the demand side. The main feeling is apathy and disinterest of operators, with a resistant firmness of the prices. It is taken for granted that this harvest in process will be slightly better than 2022-23, so the discussion is about the odds for a bigger crop in 2024-25.
Rain is very much needed, especially in southern and eastern Spain, for the trees to blossom in May and bear fruit in fall. At present, the weather is dry and rather warm, with temperatures proper for spring.
OTHER NEWS
THE EURO
As 2024 progresses, there could be periods of strength for the Euro against the Dollar, with the Dollar facing its own set of challenges. The mixed views from different banks highlight the uncertainty and the range of factors that could influence the EUR/USD rate, including inflation rates and broader economic performances in both areas. The ECB's and Federal Reserve's monetary policy also play an important role in the exchange rate movement.
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